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Friday, October 11, 2013

The Math That Saw The US Shutdown Coming

An article in New Scientist discusses the work of mathematical ecologist Peter Turchin. It seems that he has been applying the mathematics of complex systems to problems of political instability.

He believes that he has identified historical cycles that are two to three centuries long of political instability and breakdown affecting states and empires from Rome to Russia and he argues that that similar cycles are evident in US history. Quoting from the article. "Workers or employees make up the bulk of any society, with a minority of employers constituting the top few per cent of earners. By mathematically modelling historical data, Turchin finds that as population grows, workers start to outnumber available jobs, driving down wages. The wealthy elite then end up with an even greater share of the economic pie, and inequality soars."

If you add this information to polling data offered in an article in Salon that shows that the radical fringe of the GOP will become even more extreme and strident in the coming years, you just might have the "end if the world" scenario that so many evangelicals (a significant segment of the GOP) lust for.

Cheer up. Tomorrow's Fun Time will make up for all this doom and gloom.

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